Hello Bettors; its Profiting to Trade on Sports but its another to stay in the Business; lets Have an Insight into The Rules Of Betting for 2017/2018 Sports Season.
There are a huge amount of betting systems being sold online, and this has a very particular side effect.
It sets a specific interpretation of what a betting system is to the products being sold.
Generally this is a guide giving you step-by-step rules of how to find selections. These rules are generally fairly simple and use information that can be found on any race cards.
So today, I want to rip this general interpretation apart. Then, I’m going to re-define it for you.
And this is going to allow you to build betting systems in ways that nobody else can.
This may sound obvious, but a system is something that is systematical.
By systematical, we mean that… everyone using it comes to the same conclusions.
This does not just mean systems that use what are known as IF/AND/OR/THEN rules.
An example of a system using IF/AND/OR/THEN rules would
Find all races with less than 12 runners AND Find the top 4 weighted in the race AND Remove any who are not in the top 4 for TS IF One of those is the favourite OR One of those is the second favourite AND Odds are 3/1 or less THEN Bet
That’s not to say that these sorts of systems can’t work, they can. But the edge they have is generally quite small.
It’s possible to develop betting systems in other ways that have much larger edges and will produce better ROI.
IMPORTANT NOTICE – Using the following methods will take some effort in learning how they work and developing a system. If you don’t want to put in the time then they won’t work for you.
Okay, here we go..
A systematic process of handicapping:
Write down a selection of rules as to how you are going to analyse certain races.
Tweak the steps and adjust them until you have a process of handicapping that you can follow for certain race conditions.
Use strike rates, impact values or ratings:
Use any of the previously mentioned methods of ranking horses in a race to systematically remove poor runners and find contenders.
As always, make sure you focus on specific race conditions and then you can use these statistical features to determine a process to find the most likely runners to win.
Apply weightings to different factors to rank horses:
Take different factors, ratings and impact values relating to different aspects of a runners performance.
Focus on applying different levels of importance to them systematically and add them together.
You can then rank the horses for each race. Adjust your levels of importance until you find the best way to systematically get the majority of winners in your top 4 or 5 ranked horses.
Create an odds line:
Use a step by step method focusing on specific race conditions to determine what odds a horse should be at.
Use statistical models:
These are numerous and varied but all of them are complex systems. For example, you may want to use a monte carlo simulation in Excel to “race” horses against each other to find the likeliest winner over 1 million races.
Build a decision tree / expert system:
A decision tree is a way of visualising a systematic process. Ask yourself a question, put it in a box and then put lines coming out the box for every possible answer.
For each of these answers ask another relevant question and repeat the process until you end up with a Possible Selection or Not A Selection when all the questions have been answered.
Each day you can find the relevant races and go through this process systematically.
Above are a few of the possible ways to build systematic processes to find selections.
You can also combine them to create almost endless possibilities for building systems that are outside the normal ‘betting system’ parameters.
Never stop thinking outside of the box and you will be rewarded.
All the best,